1981 Exxon Memo on Possible Emission Consequences of Fossil Fuel Consumption

August 18, 1981 memo from Exxon’s Roger Cohen to Exxon’s Werner Glass with comments about Glass’ draft report on possible consequences of fossil fuel consumption out to 2030. Cohen writes that it is very likely “we will unambiguously recognize the threat by the year 2000 because of advances in climate modeling and the beginning of real experimental confirmation of the CO2 effect.” Cohen asks for a paragraph in the draft to incorporate delayed CO2 effect of a “truly substantial magnitude, a possibility which increases the uncertainty surrounding the post-2000 CPD scenario.”

The draft report Glass sent to staff includes statements such as, “the models that appear most credible (to us) do predict measurable changes in temperature, rainfall pattern, and sea-level by the year 2030 for the postulated fossil fuel combustion rates…”

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